Keir Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Campaign to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Return

Loyalists of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has prompted an impending by-election.

Serious Barriers in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour hierarchy is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Current Climate and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive ratings with the public.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to stop talking about potential contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

Several insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the body could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The trade unions occupy a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was resigning due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.